Most areas in Connecticut haven’t seen a frost and most certainly haven’t seen a hard freeze! All that will change Thursday as a burst of cold will move south as a departing storm heads into the Atlantic.
While the NAM computer model drops temperatures fast enough to change rain to accumulating snow just about everywhere the GFS is much milder. As is typical the NAM Is likely too cold and the truth will lie in the middle.
At this point it seems like a slushy coating to an inch of snow is possible in the northwest and northeast hills Thursday evening. For the valley locations some places may see some wet snowflakes mix in but that’s just about it. One of the differences in the model is that the stronger solutions develop stronger northerly winds at the surface which is able to tug colder air to the coast much faster. This will be something to watch.
The 15z SREF snowfall probabilities are pretty similar to previous runs with about a 50% chance of >1″ of snow in the higher elevations of Litchfield County. The green shading is probability over 50% and red is over 75%. As you can see there is a low probability of >1″ of snow in some of the lower elevations but at this point that is rather unlikely.
Even a slushy accumulation could make roads slippery as temperatures drop below freezing in the hills. Watch for some black ice as well early Friday morning.
As for Saturday’s storm… stay tuned! At this point it looks like a rain/snow mix glances by Connecticut but there are some indications the storm could be closer to the coast and much more powerful.