Tracking one snow threat in October is unusual but two is pretty rare. We have two storm possibilities, one on Thursday and another on Saturday.
Storm one will be mainly rain. I’m pretty confident about that. The temperatures through the low levels of the atmosphere are, not surprisingly, too warm for snow. If the storm tracks in the perfect spot and is strong enough to tug down enough cold air it’s possible we see some snow flakes at the tail end. Above 1,000 feet maybe a slushy accumulation?
The 18z NAM which is known for its wild, and sometimes comically snowy solutions, shows the worst case scenario for the Thursday storm with rain changing to snow and accumulation occurring in the higher elevations. For 95 percent of people in the state the Thursday event will feature little or no accumulation even if the most extreme scenario came to pass.
And then there’s Saturday. A convoluted series of interactions between upper level disturbances is going to make this forecast a bear. In addition the impact of Hurricane Rina will make this all the more challenging to forecast.
Our ECMWF model (the Euro as we call it) has been banging the big snow drum for the last couple runs. In fact the run today would drop a substantial amount of snow even in metro Hartford. With leaves on the trees it would be an exceptionally high impact event that is virtually unprecedented in October.
Most of our other models show a much weaker storm out to sea with very little impact. Getting a snowstorm like this to occur on October 29th would mean every little piece would need to come together just right. Since we’re more than 100 hours out I wouldn’t count on it.
This is certainly worth watching given the unusually active weather pattern developing along with an unusually cold airmass and storm track setting up. Odds are pretty good that most of us see no snow accumulation over the next 7 days – but there’s a chance some of us see something pretty rare for late October.