Had a bit of a weather hiatus but I’m back to the grind and back to posting on the blog! It really appears that the big cold snap for later next week is on track. I have to say the models have been good in the 7-14 day time range and my calls have been solid as well (thanks to the models!). My call for Dec 15-22nd was -4F at BDL and I have no reason to change that forecast (in fact -4 may not be generous enough). I also predicted a snow event and I think that is on track as well.
Starting Wednesday the gates will open from the Arctic and a MAJOR -NAO is developing and retrograding from east based to west based. Unfortunately this 
block is so strong the flow underneath it is relatively flat leaving us much below normal but dry. I think there is an opportunity though for a storm by next weekend, however, and some of the models are showing some east coast cyclogenesis. You can see a somewhat favorable pattern for an east coast snow event with the major -NAO and a strong 50/50 low. The problem is keeping the flow amplified enough under the block to get something good up here. I think the 3 day period from 12/19-12/21 may be favorable for a decent snow event in the northeast.
I’m going to try and figure out a Christmas week (12/23-12/30) call either tomorrow or Wednesday. Still have some stuff to figure out. The GFS ensemble mean tries to moderate things by bringing in some Pacific warmth while the Euro ensemble mean keeps us in the freezer through New Years. The MJO signal appears weak right now and probably won’t provide much guidance (though the models insist a strong wave redevelops and rockets through P6-1).
Ryan
Way Too Much Weather 