After a cold couple days our January thaw is ready to move in. Melting snow, unseasonably mild temperatures, and a rain storm or two will leave winter lovers with a stream of tears come next weekend.
While the usual winter weather weenies are doubting the coming torch using arguments like, “Well, January’s temperatures have largest standard deviation of any month so +10 really isn’t that unusual,” the signs are strong for an impressive period of above normal temperatures. Many of us in Connecticut will have no snow on the ground in a week’s time.
The big question is how long does the thaw last? Current indications are that while the next 10 days will be mild, potentially quite mild compared to typical January weather, the thaw may be on borrowed time. I expect a return to winter by January 15th at the earliest but more likely by January 20th.
— Meteorological Discussion Below —
The synoptic setup is pretty torch-tastic for the east coast. Above you can see the 850mb temperature anomalies with the greatest departures centered over New England. Below is the 00z Euro Ensemble day 6 to day 10 500mb anomalies.
A strong -PNA signal with a large trough over the west coast will pump up the ridge in the southeast. A southwesterly flow begins to advect milder air into New England and we’re looking at a pretty classic January thaw. Here are the raw 12z GFS MOS temperatures (lows/highs) for BDL. Keep in mind climo is 18/34 so that’s 7 days above average with 3 days of greater than +10 departures next week!
Beyond day 10, however, it’s unclear how much longer our thaw will last. This weather pattern is far different from last year and the warm-up is likely on borrowed time. The polar vortex over the North Pole is getting a big shake up.
The typically roaring zonal flow above the Arctic Circle thanks to the Polar night jet is slamming on the brakes.
In fact the night jet essentially reverses around 80N in the next couple days which will effective disrupt the Polar Vortex. The Euro forecasts of the polar vortex disruption can also be seen in through a potential vorticity perspective. Here’s the 600K PV analysis from today and the 10 day Euro forecast.
This PV split (notice the high PV lobes over the North Pole near D0 and separate at D10) will introduce some solid Arctic air into North America. The Arctic Oscillation will go strongly negative as the PV slides off the North Pole. The question will be where does the storm track set up and whether or not the true Arctic cold is able to slide far enough east for New England. The Euro Ensembles also couple the -AO with a -NAO thanks to ridging over Greenland. Cross your fingers snow lovers!
Models do show the milder pattern breaking down post-day 10 and it seems reasonable to expect winter will make a pretty sizable come back later this month. Stay tuned!