It’s Cold Enough… Where’s the Snow?

Not in Connecticut. And it’s not coming anytime soon. A few days ago Friday and Monday looked good for at least some snow but today it appears that the threat for snow is quite low.

A weak Alberta Clipper is going to go through an atmospheric meat grinder on Friday with little lift and moisture left for snow production. Some flurries or sprinkles are likely but that’s about it.

120 Hour ECMWF 500mb (left) and SLP (right)

 

A storm Sunday into Monday that showed some promise now appears poised to cut into the Great Lakes. A -NAO block is going to shift too far east to keep the storm track suppressed and a strong polar vortex in south central Canada is going to phase with the storm and yank the thing inland. Bottom line is rain. Maybe a lot of rain.

Even northern New England may not be immune from the rain come Sunday. Hopefully this storm will trend a little bit further east to spare the mountains that have done so well from upslope snow this week a monster rainstorm.

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Snowy By Friday?

It’s going to be a cold week. No doubt about that.  The high today at Bradley Airport was 35 degrees which was the coldest day since February 16, 2010! Temperatures will remain below normal for the next 7 days – that’s the easy part of the forecast.

The current weather pattern, though cold, is pretty quiet and stagnant. By Friday things get more interesting with a more stormy pattern developing. Late Friday or Saturday our computer models are showing an Alberta Clipper diving through the Great Lakes and approaching New England. As is typically the case there won’t be much moisture for the storm to work with so precipitation will be light. A couple inches of snow isn’t out of the question for parts of New England depending on where the storm tracks and if it starts to redevelop off the coast.

Beyond Friday a more important storm develops by Sunday.  Some models have an intense storm developing west of us and rushing warm air and rain into New England while others develop the storm into a classic nor’easter. Here’s the 12z GFS which would drop over a foot of snow for many of us while the 12z Euro is hundreds of miles west and a big rainstorm. A storm signal is certainly here we just need to figure out where exactly the storm tracks (over the Appalachians or off the coast?). The strength and location of the -NAO block, the track and intensity of Friday’s clipper system, and the strength and location of Pacific energy that helps form this storm are all variables that need to be ironed out. The odds, however, do favor something wintry by next Sunday or Monday and it could be significant.

Stay tuned!