Cold Shot on the Way

Forecast 7 Day Temp Trend Hartford

The cold shot on Monday and Tuesday is still on track. Your furnace will get a work out and local ski areas will blow an incredible amount of white gold. Today’s GFS MOS has pretty impressive chill by Tuesday morning with a minimum temperature at BDL of 5F on Tuesday!

mos1

So yeah – cold stuff early next week.

What weather weenies like me care about is what happens around 1/10 and beyond when the weather pattern becomes more favorable for some snow. Hell, after the last 2 months just seeing some cold air in Canada is enough to get us excited!

The first chance for something comes in on Saturday or Sunday. There are a number of possibilities here – with the possibility of a warmer system (rainy) being most likely at this early juncture.

f162

Snow lovers don’t despair yet – there’s a ton of model spread and uncertainty here. Some of the GEFS members (shown above) have a storm cutting way west – which would be warm – and some have a storm getting shunted south with cold high pressure building in. Stay tuned on this one – can’t rule anything out now. The Euro ensemble members also show a tremendous amount of spread ranging from a rain storm Friday night to a nor’easter/snowstorm on Sunday night.

Now – the most epic possible solution is what the 00z GFS is showing for Saturday and Monday with a lighter event on Saturday and a major nor’easter/blizzard on Monday. While the odds of this verifying is exceptionally low it is one possible scenario here. The pattern supports something interesting – getting something to actually occur always takes a bit of luck.

gfsNE_prec_prec_216.gif

I doubt we’ll have much clarity here until Monday and the pattern is able to shake out a bit better. One thing I remain confident in is a second shot of colder air after next weekend as the Arctic Oscillation flips negative and an area of large ridging extends up into Alaska. This chart shows the temperature forecast for the Euro Ensemble members at 850mb – well below climatology for a chunk of the extended range.

tseries_850t_000-360_New_York

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