Winter’s Here

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For at least 2 days we’ll get a taste of winter next week. I’m expecting temperatures in the 20s both Monday and Tuesday as a sharp dip in the jet stream brings chilly air into New England.

It’s what follows, however, that has me really interested. On December 29th I posted about the long term forecast appearing favorable for some “fun” winter weather near or after 1/10. Now we’re seeing the first signs of some possible storminess in a pattern that looks ripe for New England winter storms.

Let’s start with where we stand in the long range.

ECMWF Ensemble (WMO Essential) / WeatherBell

This pattern setting up around 1/10 looks quite favorable for winter weather in New England. Ridging over western North America sets up a +PNA/-EPO look and that ridging extends across the North Pole (-AO). A cross polar flow and even ridging around Greenland acts as a -NAO. For snow lovers this is good!

It appears we’ll have 2 possible systems to track. The first system is coming into view late Friday or Saturday. The GEFS show several possibilities ranging from snow storm to rain storm to miss. All options are on the table here but at least there’s the possibility of something interesting.

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Regardless of what happens Friday/Saturday there’s another opportunity for snow by Monday with colder air nearby. The Euro Ensemble mean shows some storminess lurking off the coast. With plenty of cold and high latitude blocking this is intriguing.

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The pattern going forward looks pretty exciting for snow lovers. Periods of seasonable cold along with a pattern that should support at least one if not several snow chances. Skiers – be patient – it looks like the goods are coming.

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