Real Winter Weather on the Horizon

As we wind down the warmest December on record (by a large and impressive margin) our computer models are now showing an exceptional pattern change that should have cold and snow lovers jumping with joy.

It appears that one of the catalysts for this change is a giant and anomalous block that forms over the Kara Sea. This area north of Siberia in the Arctic Ocean will be ground zero for a pretty big change in the atmospheric circulation.

gefs_z500a_nh_13

This super-block effectively disrupts the tropospheric Polar Vortex over the North Pole resulting in a rapid warming and a switch in the all important Arctic oscillation from positive to negative. You can see that dramatic switch in this Arctic Oscillation plot from Ryan Maue at WeatherBell.

gefs_ao_12

This is a very impressive signal on an ensemble mean in the 10-15 day range! The flip in the Arctic Oscillation will allow cold to come south and should really kickstart winter. The 500mb anomalies forecast by the GEFS (the Euro Ensembles agree to a large extent) are very tasty with a classic looking northeast cold/snow pattern developing later in January – especially near or after 1/10.

gefs_z500a_nh_61

So how long will the pattern remain “good” for snow? Who knows – but at least there’s a nice looking window for some fun!

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2 thoughts on “Real Winter Weather on the Horizon

  1. Pingback: The Epic Torch of December 2015 | Way Too Much Weather

  2. Pingback: Winter’s Here | Way Too Much Weather

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