An Uncertain Weather Future

Earlier today I tweeted out something to the effect of the forecast confidence for Friday/Saturday is something just a few pegs above magic 8 ball confidence. That wouldn’t both me so much – except Saturday is July 4th!

So what’s the deal? Here’s a really basic look at the weather pattern on Friday and Saturday.

Custom Map 2

So there you have it – a close call. It’s nearly certain our computer models will flip back and forth several times between now and the end of the week. One way we try to look at the forecast uncertainty/certainty is to look at “ensembles”. The way this works is that the initial conditions of each computer model is tweaked a bit and the model is run to show you a range of possible solutions. When most of the solutions are the same – confidence is high. When there’s a tremendous amount of spread- confidence in the forecast is low. This weekend? Well, you guess it – low!

f126This shows a number of different solutions ranging from a sunny 4th to a rainy 4th on these different GFS ensemble members. The European ensembles are similar with about 1 in 4 members showing a wet solution on Saturday.

So there you have it. Saying I know what will happen on Saturday is not something I’ll do. For now, we’ll play things optimistically but I really wouldn’t be surprised if we have to deal with some weather issues. Bottom line – stay tuned to the weekend forecast!

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