Big Severe Weather Day Possible Tuesday

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The ingredients appear to be there for a major severe weather event on Tuesday. I have to say this has me intrigued! As an upper level system swings through northern New England and southern Quebec we will see an impressive combination of strong shear and strong instability develop over Connecticut.

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You can see a very moist layer around 900 mb (dew points of near +20C) with very impressive wind shear (southwesterly winds at the surface veering to westerly and rapidly increasing with height). Seeing mixed layer CAPE in excess of 2,000 j/kg co-located with more than 50 knots of shear is pretty unusual around here. Normally it’s one or the other – getting both is tough.

We’re also seeing a remnant Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) move through early in the day with steep mid level lapse rates. It’s unclear exactly how this will evolve by Tuesday but it’s worth watching.

All severe hazards are possible on Tuesday including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A lot can change in the next day or so but this is worth keeping an eye on.

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