Midday Map Discussion – Weekend Storm?

The last month of winter has been epic – and it shows no sign of quitting! We have a big surge of cold on the way Friday and a second surge of cold Saturday night that has the potential of producing a powerful nor’easter.

ecmwf_apcp_f96_us

The European computer model is the most ominous with a blizzard for a large chunk of New England – primarily due to powerful winds over 50 mph. Other computer models are more restrained – including the GFS and Canadian that develop the storm a bit later and a bit farther north which would spare Connecticut the worst.

While a major snowstorm/windstorm is possible – there are other scenarios just as likely. The GFS and most of the GFS ensembles show a storm that organizes a bit too late for Connecticut to really get slammed. The piece of energy responsible for the storm on the GFS tracks a bit too far north.

f96

This results in a storm that’s a bit flatter, a bit farther east, and one that doesn’t really wind up until it passes our latitude. The Canadian, on the other hand, is a bit in between the GFS/Euro. The Canadian model would produce a stripe of moderate to heavy snow over Connecticut but would spare us the blizzard conditions. Still, it would be sizable.

One thing to note is that the overnight European ensemble members were not terribly bullish with this storm. About 50% of them dropped 0.25″+ of liquid over Connecticut (ball parking that’s a 3″+ storm) and only 10-20% of them dropped 0.50″+ of liquid. We will have to watch for trends in the Euro ensembles to see if this winds up more impressive for our backyard.

Regardless, brutal cold and wind are likely on Sunday with temperatures in the single digits and winds gusting over 40 mph. Wind chills could be the coldest we’ve seen in some time.

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