Blizzard of 2015 – Monday Morning Update

Really no reason to change our thoughts from overnight. The job we have today is to try and figure out where the heaviest snow will fall within the state. Currently we are running with 15″-30″ statewide.

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This graphic is confusing but let me do my best to explain. Time is on the x-axis and height is on the y-axis. Current time is on the right side of the screen and as you move left time advances. The color is relative humidity through the atmosphere (purple is supersaturated with respect to ice) while the pink lines indicate where temperatures are between -12C and -18C. Why do we care? We look for strong lift through -12C and -18C because that’s where snowflake production is most efficient. High snow:liquid ratios and heavy snow is favored where this occurs. This cross section off the GFS for New Haven is about as impressive as I have ever seen in the area. Wow. This also shows the potential for a heavy burst of snow on Tuesday afternoon after the main burst Tuesday morning.

The issue now is where does the heaviest banding setup? Who gets the jackpot from this storm? At this point we’re thinking western Connecticut as the most likely location and we will pin down the details more by this afternoon.

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