An Arctic Cold Update

WVIT_Temp_Trend_HFD_7Day

The Arctic blast is on schedule and continues to look quite impressive. The initial surge of coldest air this week will stay to our west though temperatures will drop in a big way here in Connecticut.

Our computer models absolutely nailed this big pattern shift – and for the last 10 days have wavered little. A very large block (-EPO) over Alaska and the Northwest Territories will dislodge a large chunk of cold and the pattern looks like it will remain quite stable. You can see even 9 days from now the lower 48 is dealing with an impressive cold shot with 850mb temperatures (just a few thousand feet up) between 10 and 20 celsius below normal!

ecm_eps_t850a_nh_10

Temperatures will go well below normal this weekend –  but next week looks even colder after a brief reprieve from the chill on Monday. I said it last week and I’ll stick to my guns here that odds are better than 50/50 we’ll have to deal with a pre-Thanksgiving snow threat. While it’s by no means a certainty it’s certainly more than climatology (or the typical odds of a snow event this time of year).

Bundle up, enjoy the cold, eschew the silly polar vortex hype, and stay warm!

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