The Arctic blast is on schedule and continues to look quite impressive. The initial surge of coldest air this week will stay to our west though temperatures will drop in a big way here in Connecticut.
Our computer models absolutely nailed this big pattern shift – and for the last 10 days have wavered little. A very large block (-EPO) over Alaska and the Northwest Territories will dislodge a large chunk of cold and the pattern looks like it will remain quite stable. You can see even 9 days from now the lower 48 is dealing with an impressive cold shot with 850mb temperatures (just a few thousand feet up) between 10 and 20 celsius below normal!
Temperatures will go well below normal this weekend – but next week looks even colder after a brief reprieve from the chill on Monday. I said it last week and I’ll stick to my guns here that odds are better than 50/50 we’ll have to deal with a pre-Thanksgiving snow threat. While it’s by no means a certainty it’s certainly more than climatology (or the typical odds of a snow event this time of year).
Bundle up, enjoy the cold, eschew the silly polar vortex hype, and stay warm!