Weekend Snow? Possible But Not Likely

Slippery roads, icy conditions, nor’easter. Sound familiar? Before we give in to the weather hype that is seemingly ubiquitous on Twitter, Facebook, and some media outlets we should probably take a look at the data and use some meteorology.

ecmwf_apcp_f96_us

All of our computer guidance shows a pretty sizable storm developing off the east coast as a large and amplified trough digs south into the eastern U.S.

Earlier model runs on Sunday and Monday showed a different kind of setup with a strong upper level low swinging through with a classic signal for some snow showers and snow squalls under it as cold air rushed in. I posted the midday Sunday and Monday computer model runs below so you can see the change.

ecmwf_apcp_f150_us

ecmwf_apcp_f132_us

But now that signal as all but disappeared. The energy that digs south from Canada really “digs for oil” and winds up emerging off the coast in the Mid Atlantic – not New England as advertised on Sunday. This setup puts Connecticut between the 2 features of interest which leaves us with a fairly boring weather regime for the weekend with snow possible in the Appalachians and Maine (if the Euro is to be believed).

Snow flurries made sense in the forecasts you saw on Sunday and Monday but it didn’t yesterday and doesn’t today. What we’ll have to watch today is the track of the coastal low and how close to the coast does it get? Winter will come – but right now it looks like we’ll just have to wait a bit longer.

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