An elevated risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow is becoming a bit more clear this afternoon. Today, we had a convective shower (little/no lightning) produce a brief/weak tornado in Wolcott. Radar showed 30 knots of gate-to-gate shear at 4,000 ft AGL which is quite marginal but apparently sufficient for a tornado.
Monday’s setup is much more intriguing. Around daybreak strong low level shear develops along with fairly sizable instability.
While the GFS is more muted with the amount of instability present the NAM is much more impressive. Depending on how quickly dry air advects in during the midday a second round of severe weather is possible later in the day.
All severe hazards are possible tomorrow in the strongest storms – flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. If surface based convection can develop around daybreak we will have to watch closely for tornadoes.
Tomorrow promises to be an active day – stay weather aware!