Here Comes the Severe

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The 2014 tornado season has been off to a slow start, thankfully. That will change by this weekend. A sizable tornado outbreak is possible in the Arklatex on Sunday and that may spread east through the southeastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday. This looks like a classic “Dixie” outbreak.

gfsSGP_500_avort_039

A deep, negatively tilted, upper level low/trough and an anomalously deep surface low will make things rock by Sunday. It could get ugly in Arkansas. Plenty of Gulf moisture, QG ascent, strong shear (50+ knot LLJ), and moderate instability are ingredients for high end severe.

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