Snowstorm and Bitter Cold Moving In

snow3

I love extreme weather. Believe it or not I’m actually more excited for the cold behind Thursday night’s snowstorm than I am for the storm itself. I’m odd, I know that. Much like me the upcoming storm will be a little odd.

We already have some flurries in the air in parts of Connecticut tonight. Some weak lift (warm advection) is sufficient for some light snow. By morning I expect many towns will have a coating of new snow and some may have an inch or two.

During the day we’ll be battling a pretty impressive dry slot. A large area of dry air between 5,000 and 10,000 feet above the ground will move in.

f24

This is the GFS computer model valid at 1 p.m. Thursday. Shaded on  the left is relative humidity ~10,000 feet up and on the right is relative humidity ~5,000 feet up. This is, essentially, a dry donut of discontent for snow lovers. I expect the snow to taper off on Thursday, become intermittent, and along the shoreline it may stop entirely for a long period of time.

No need to fear, however, the real brunt of this storm will still be well west. A coastal storm will wind up off the coast and while it won’t really strengthen into a monster (the jet stream is progressive and not allowing the storm to really take off and hug the coast) it will be sufficient to deliver a good burst of snow.

chart_3 (3)

Because we’ll lose a lot of Thursday to crappy lift and snow growth totals won’t wow you but I do expect a period of moderate snow Thursday night that will pile up to 6″ in many towns. A few areas could come close to 10″.

The cold on Friday and especially Saturday will be very impressive. With fresh snow cover and high pressure moving in from the west our computer models are showing very cold overnight lows on Saturday.

mos

GFS MOS has a low of -12 at BDL – this is the lowest I’ve ever seen it! I’m predicting -10 for Bradley which would be the coldest morning since February 5, 1996. Bridgeport may slide below zero for the first time since January 10, 1994.

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