A Snowy (And Cold) Start to 2014

Thought I’d type up a quick post about the late week storm before I head off to bed. Snow will develop across the state Wednesday night and Thursday and continue at a light to moderate intensity for the better part of 24 hours. Here’s how the GFS computer model look for Thursday evening.

gfs_op_apcp_f72_ne

 

A very cold air mass will settle in and a long period of lift will develop with moist air essentially overrunning the cold Arctic air oozing south out of Quebec.

Some of our computer models have been trying to develop a powerful nor’easter Thursday night and Friday morning. The European model has been showing this for the past 2 runs though has shown some signs of backing down.

ecmwf_apcp_f102_ne

 

While this is possible I don’t think this is the likely outcome. The European ensembles and most of the GFS ensembles show a weaker and more offshore solution. The overall weather pattern doesn’t really favor a powerful low hugging the coast for several reasons.

My best guess right now is that we’ll see a long duration period of light to occasionally moderate snow Thursday. It may briefly pick up in intensity Thursday night as a low develops to our south and east. I don’t buy the extreme Euro solution at this time but I’m watching it closely.

For amounts I’m thinking a few inches of accumulation is likely on Thursday. The atmosphere will be quite cold so if the best lift can align with the snow growth zone we could have some “fluff factor” to consider and will also need to pin down area of banding that develop as the thermal gradient is very tight and a strong frontogenetical circulation will develop.

Temperatures will be very cold Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday morning. Widespread sub-zero cold is likely Friday night. I’m currently forecasting a low of -6 at BDL Saturday morning.

More to follow…

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