Dry and Boring

Since the February blizzard the weather pattern is just been brutally boring. While most people are a fan it has been like watching paint dry for meteorologists!

This past month has also been quite dry. At Sikorsky only 0.28″ of rain has fallen all month. Assuming they’ll remain dry (or trace) between now and 1 a.m. Bridgeport will record their driest October on record and second driest month on record. The all-time driest month was June 1949 where 0.07″ of rain fell.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that parts of the state are now considered in a “moderate drought” while most of us are “abnormally dry”. While this has some implications for agricultural interests for the most part this is no big deal and fairly typical.

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We will get some rain tomorrow morning and some good wind gusts as well (40-50 m.p.h. at the shore) as a front blows on by. From there it’s a yo-yo weather pattern with periods of below average chill and above normal warmth. On a whole the next 11-15 days will likely average a bit above normal but not by much.

Here’s the day 10 GFS ensemble forecast mean 500mb heights and anomalies. The warm colors indicate above normal heights (warmth/ridging) and the cooler colors indicate below normal heights (troughs/cold).

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The pattern includes continued ridging over Alaska extending north of the Arctic Circle. We call this a -EPO and this pattern is favorable for dislodging cold air from the Arctic. At the same time, however, there’s a big area of negative height anomalies over Greenland (a +NAO) and, as a whole, negative height anomalies near the North Pole which is a somewhat +AO. You can also see continued signs of ridging in the southeastern U.S. which is La Nina-esqe.

What does all this mean? We’ll likely have quite a bit of cold lurking north of the border that will make occasional runs at us. However, the southeast ridging and +NAO will force the storm track well to our west over the Great Lakes which will allow periods of warmth (maybe even well above normal weather) in here as well over the first 2 weeks of November.

For now, no sign of winter or big/sustained cold though we will have some cold days interspersed with a warmer than normal weather pattern through November 15th.  

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