Severe Weather, Flooding, and a Very Unsettled Pattern

Rinse and repeat. More thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday with the potential for another round of borderline severe storms. Stronger winds aloft will increase shear a bit so more storm organization is possible unlike the pulsers we had today.

Thursday, however, looks much more interesting. A very deep and anomalous shortwave will dig south and spawn a pretty powerful low to our northwest. It’s a very unusual setup to get a 995mb low tracking just to our northwest during the last week in June.

gfsNE_500_avort_054

 

If we’re able to generate enough instability there will be plenty of wind shear along a warm front that will drape through southeast New York and southern New England. This is an unusual setup and we will have to worry about several issues including flash flooding and supercells capable of producing strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes. It’s certainly worth watching.

After a brief break on Friday it’s back to unsettled weather over the weekend and early next week. I know that is really bad news for people on vacation.

gfsUS_500_avort_126

 

This broad, deep, and unusual trough will bring us back to the tropical swamp with several chances of thunderstorms (severe is possible) with flash flooding as well. With any luck we’ll get this closed low to retrograde (i.e. backing up or moving west) by mid week to push the threat for the heaviest rain west of us.

Since it’s been so wet of late we will have to watch for flooding potential Saturday through Tuesday though I do not expect it to rain the whole time. In fact there may be several sizable dry periods during the weekend and early next week. Upper level closed lows this time of year are frequently responsible for flooding and severe weather. This bears watching.

 

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