I Hate April

April is such a pain for meteorologists.  Back in the 90s when we did “Guaranteed Weather” at Channel 30 there were more red Xs and angry sounding horns in April than any other month. Temperature forecasting just plain sucks this time of year.

Of course there’s the GFS rip and read crowd that will just fall flat on their faces. Here’s the GFS MOS forecast for Windsor Locks. If you were to just look at this you’d probably by expecting an awesome week. Torch!!!!!!!

mos

The Thursday and Friday forecast is the most uncertain. The GFS blows a warm front through here pushing us way above climo. The Euro, however, on Thursday and especially Friday is cold, breezy, cloudy, rainy, and miserable. And I mean that. If the Euro were to verify temperatures on Friday may struggle out of the 30s!

ecmwf_apcp_f162_us

Awful. Front to the south. Easterly winds off a 45º ocean and some cold air damming. Hideous. Ugly. Terrible.

April forecasting separates the weather readers from the meteorologists. I’ve gone with 50s on Thursday and Friday. Sticking with climo for a day 6 forecast is about all you can do right now. It’s possible the GFS is right with blowing the front through here but if history is any guide the colder solution is probably the way to go.

Enjoy Monday and Tuesday (when we may get to 70). Chances are the weather goes downhill quite a bit by the end of the week!

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One thought on “I Hate April

  1. Yep..an E-W-oriented, nearly stationary front across New England in March/April..and its inevitable undulations does, indeed, separate the experienced meteorologist from the “wannabe” hacker with the 2-year “broadcast” certificate!

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