The midweek nor’easter hasn’t even sent a cloud into New England and it’s already an odd storm. Our computer models have been all over the place with this one.
The normally reliable European model that has nailed storms this year like the blizzard and Hurricane Sandy last year insisted on an out to sea track. For run after run it delivered no more than flurries to the state. The GFS, which has been woefully pathetic this winter, has not shown a major snowstorm hit for the last 5 runs.
Most of us in the weather community expected the GFS to cave to the European. It happens more often than not. What has been unusual with this storm is that today every model has been trending toward the amped up GFS solution. The steadfast Euro jumped at least 100 miles north and now brings strong winds and accumulating snow into the state.
At this point it’s fair to say a compromise between the GFS and Euro (which would be similar to the UKMet and GGEM) is the way to go.
While the GFS has spent the better part of a day on its own with a big snowstorm it’s other American counterpart (the NAM – which is basically useless at this time frame) and the GFS ensemble members are all on board with a big storm.
There’s the potential, albeit still somewhat low, that this could be a high impact storm with significant snow, gusty winds, and coastal flooding. While the glancing blow scenario is more likely the odds of a bigger storm are increasing. If the Euro keeps moving northwest and toward the GFS it will be time to sound the alarms. We’ll know by about 1:00 a.m. in the morning.