Stormy Pattern?

There’s no question the weather pattern has been less than exciting over the last few weeks. The southern stream of the jet stream has effectively shut off from influencing our weather during January.

A series of weak northern stream disturbances have given us periods of light snow and we finally got a decent sized storm on the 31st. Gulf moisture, a phase between the northern and southern streams, what a novelty! Of course, the storm tracked way west resulting in gusty (and damaging) southerly winds and an inch or so of rain.

Some models now show some interesting goings on for Friday. The European model has quite a phase and winds up delivering quite a winter storm here in New England.

500vty_f120_bg_US

 

A bit of southern stream energy and a well timed northern stream shortwave is something we haven’t seen much of. That said, this storm is by no means a lock. The GFS misses the phase and results in another boring 1″-3″ snooze-fest across the region.

f120

 

The operational GFS as you can see is anything but impressive and many of the GFS ensemble members show no phase or a late phase.

f120E

 

Certainly worth watching over the next couple days. Odds of a storm are low but not definitely not zero!

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