Weeks like this are fun to track as a meteorologist. We have a pesky warm front on Monday that should be enough to muck up the evening commute. A little snow accumulation followed by a glaze of freezing rain? Yuck.
On Tuesday the warm front probably will stall to our south – the damn things never make it through as easily as models predict this time of year.
By Wednesday we torch. The synoptics should overwhelm the cold air damming allowing screaming southwesterlies to advect plenty of warmth to the north. 55º-60º is a distinct possibility. Those in the hills who are clinging to snowpack will watch it melt under a snow-eating, foggy, high dew point, southerly zephyr.
Thursday’s our cold advection day. Depending on the cold front’s timing we may have something like a 54º midnight high with temperatures falling all day long. We could put up a pretty sizable positive departure from normal on Thursday if the cold front slows a bit.
And then there’s Friday. Hmmm. Right now none of our operational models have anything of note but some ensemble members show something a little interesting developing offshore. This will all depend on how the polar vortex and trough sets up to our north but it’s worth watching. This winter is the winter of everything going wrong for snow-lovers in a semi-favorable snow pattern so don’t hold your breath.
While it has been cold lately we’ve still managed to remain above normal for the month. BDL is +2.0 for January so far and we’re also running a precipitation deficit of about 2 inches compared to normal. We should make about half of that up Wednesday night.