Sublimating Then Melting – Winter About to Take a Hiatus

Winter is ready to take a vacation. I joked the other day with some weather friends that the snow pack across the state probably would sublimate before it melts with dry and cold weather for the next few days. What’s left probably will melt in short order for many of us if the big warm up occurs as currently modeled.

Here’s the deal. The pattern change is actually pretty impressive and appears to be moving along pretty quickly. For the next 5 days we’ll have the fortune of near or below normal temperatures. Climo is 19/35 at KBDL so AOB is pretty chilly! The cold across Canada will make an appearance across the border thanks to a +PNA ridge that pops out west forcing the cold south. But alas it doesn’t last for long.

12z GEFS 500mb Anomaly D6-D10

12z GEFS 500mb Anomaly D6-D10

So yeah. That sucks. A flat flow across North America results in an awfully quiet weather pattern. The Pacific ain’t doing us any favors either with a rocket of a jet south of Alaska. Yikes.

By day 10, however, the models begin to buckle the flow. That at least will get some storms brewing.

12z GEFS 500mb Anomalies D11-D15

12z GEFS 500mb Anomalies D11-D15

The pattern certainly manages to flip once again by this point. The +PNA ridge in D1-D5 is replaced by a -PNA trough. That’s an awfully torchy looking pattern for the east coast, however. I can envision some type of event in the D11-D15 period (that would put us post January 10th) that could be a wintry mix or rain kind of deal.

The Euro weeklies, which I can’t post, show the torch continuing in the D15-D21 period as well with one hell of a southeast ridge. After a few days of cold we’ll get a break from winter – when it comes back remains to be seen!


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