The computer model trends have been discouraging today for New England. While the National Hurricane Center keeps the storm to our southwest with a Delaware landfall my best guess is that the NHC is too far south. A landfall in New Jersey, or even Long Island, is more likely.
This would create a very dangerous setup in Connecticut – especially with the storm’s unique and unprecedented angle of approach – from the southwest!
The computer models have really begun to hone in on a track near New York City or New Jersey. The threat for severe storm surge is increasing as is the threat for damaging wind. That said, we are still 72+ hours before landfall. A slight jog east or west may have dramatic changes on specific impact. We should prepare for a hurricane stronger than Irene and hope for less of an impact!
As for model preference I really like a GFS/Euro ensemble blend. These 2 ensemble means have really been steadfast in the last 24 hours while their operational runs have seen some swings.
Both model ensembles are showing a landfall in New Jersey. The forecast pressures are quite impressive given the fact it’s an ensemble mean!
Still to be determined is how much Sandy is able to strengthen as it approaches New England. A strengthening hurricane on its way to the northeast is quite unusual but it appears that this one will pick up steam while most start falling apart.
Be prepared for a big hit. The duration of the high wind and surge is quite concerning. Be safe and figure out what you need over the next 36 hours to prepare yourself and your family.