While several computers have shown extreme solutions for New England many models have shown a storm passing harmlessly out to sea.
It’s important to note that while Sandy may impact Connecticut in some way it is still days and days away. Numerical weather prediction is quite good these days but it’s not good enough to start pinning down specific solutions 7 to 9 days ahead of time.
Here’s an easy way to see the forecast certainty in the next 96 hours and the uncertainty beyond day 4.
Notice the vast majority of the GFS ensemble members keep Sandy well out to sea. There are a handful of members, however, that indicate a more direct hit. While the GFS weakens the downstream ridging enough to let Sandy escape there are other models that take a more ominous path for the east coast of the U.S.
The 12z European model explosively intensifies Sandy south of New England to an exceptional 927mb. This is the most extreme Euro model solution I’ve ever seen – and I’ve been watching the Euro since the mid 90s!
A hurricane path like this would be unprecedented and devastating given the forecast intensity. The good news is that I have a better chance of winning Powerball this week than a 927mb hurricane approaching the 40/70 benchmark. It’s not going to happen.
That’s not to say we won’t have to deal with issues from Sandy early next week. Rain, maybe flooding rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding are all within the spectrum of possible solutions. Also in the suite of possibilities is a total miss! 7+ days out… we just don’t know!
Historic storms are historic for a reason. They’re rare. Seeing a solution like today’s Euro (or the GGEM) is interesting but it’s nothing more. We’ll have to watch this closely and see where things stand in Wednesday given how anomalous the forecast upper air pattern will be.
Every once in a while we see our computer models bring a late season Atlantic or Caribbean hurricane up toward New England and phase it with a monster dip in the jet stream. They almost never verify! I wouldn’t be surprised if we had to deal with some impact from Sandy but a direct impact from a hurricane is highly unlikely. In fact we have never been hit by a hurricane so late in the season.
For the time being… keep calm and carry on.