There’s no question in my mind we’re going to see a pretty impressive thunderstorm complex in parts of Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania this evening. The question is how severe will it be?
Clouds are breaking up upstream which should promote destabilization during the midday and afternoon. Dew points are creeping up into the 60s and should be in the low 70s this afternoon. The extent of destabilization will determine whether we see discrete supercells developing ahead of the main line this afternoon and the extent of wind damage with the evening squall line.
I agree with the SPC that this could be a very significant severe weather event across a portion of Connecticut. While the worst of the threat may be just west of us toward the NYC area we will be very close to ground zero. Besides damaging winds with the evening squall line we are also in an area of enhanced tornado potential due to strong low level wind shear (long, curved hodographs).
The more sun today the stronger the storms will be. Watch for convection firing over the Catskills prior to the main line late this afternoon (after 3 p.m.). While this is not a certainty any storms that fire up early could produce very large hail and tornadoes. Along the main line widespread damaging wind and brief tornadoes is possible. It will be an active day… see you on the Twitters!