Active Pattern Continues – Thursday Severe?

It’s been an active few weeks here in the state with the threat for more severe weather Thursday and Friday. While the threat is a bit uncertain there is the potential for a high-end outbreak if a few of the moving parts come together.

Take for instance this forecast hodograph for BDL for 23z Thursday.

 

Impressive! Strong shear (both speed and directional) indicates the potential for supercells and tornadoes. Soundings also show fairly impressive instability thanks to steep mid level lapse rates and a moist boundary layer.

 

The threat isn’t so clear cut, however. We will be dealing with morning convection with associated cloud cover for a portion of the day. A warm front will straddle the region that could be the impetus for non-severe convection during the day. Will mid level lapse rates steepen as modeled? Will the warm front even make it through? Will subsidence behind the morning MCS suppress convection? All things that will need to be ironed out in time.

While it’s unclear how the threat will evolve – the potential for a high end severe weather event is there. Strong wind fields including a low level jet always captures my interest – particularly this time of year when water temperatures are near their warmest.

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One thought on “Active Pattern Continues – Thursday Severe?

  1. Hi Ryan:

    Wow! This is so complicated. Thank you for the explanation. I am fascinated by the way the weather patterns have been for the last couple of years. Tomorrow, Thursday, as you have stated should be another interesting day. As I was relaxing on my deck last night between 8-10 pm – in Meriden, I was intrigued by the cloud formations and the different directions that they were moving. One could almost see the effect of different temperatures at various levels. The atmosphere appears to “stuck” lately. Today, however, is just so delightful.
    Thank you for your informative blog!

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