How can something so simple be so powerful? There’s no tool more important to forecasting than current and forecast soundings displayed on a skew-t. With a snapshot I’m able to get a complete picture of the atmosphere over a given point. I actually have had skew-ts (and hodographs for that matter) enter my dreams at night – dead serious and that’s a frightening thing to admit!
Here’s a NAM forecast sounding for Bradley tomorrow at 4 p.m. This is what we call a “loaded gun” sounding with very strong instability that’s effectively capped off. While thunderstorms tomorrow would be explosive in nature if this instability was tapped into it doesn’t appear that we’ll be able to break the cap.
Tomorrow appears to be an EML day across most of New England but many of us won’t realize that potential. While skies will be blue (well, actually smoky) we’ll actually be sitting on a powder keg of an atmosphere. It won’t blow here – but Maine may not be as lucky.