Big Heat to the Beaches Tomorrow

There’s no denying today was a scorcher. Hartford got to 97 today and New Haven pulled off 93 with oppressive dew points around 70 degrees. Tomorrow looks a touch warmer but it will be less humid due to deeper mixing which will allow drier air aloft to mix down to the surface.

The 4km NAM shows why I think the beaches are going to bake tomorrow.

This is the 5pm 2 meter wind forecast and you can see offshore winds from Greenwich to Groton. With winds greater than 300 degrees you can keep the sea breeze at bay and deliver big heat to the shoreline. It looks like temperatures will be a bit hotter tomorrow thanks to better mixing and slightly warmer temperatures around 800 mb. I think 96 in New Haven and 100 at Bradley are decent bets. It will be less humid but still pretty damn hot.

The next item of excitement will be thunderstorms on Friday.

This 250mb NAM forecast for 00z Saturday shows an impressive 100 knot jet streak to our northwest with us in the right entrance region. Synoptic scale lift, an approaching cold front, and a decent bit of instability (1500-2500 j/kg of CAPE) should produce widespread thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible with modest shear (about 30 knots 0-6km bulk shear) but significant severe weather or tornadoes is unlikely with only modest shear and marginal mid level lapse rates.

Enjoy the heat… stay cool!

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