An unbelievably strong signal has been showing up for the last 1-2 weeks of an extremely mild/warm pattern across a large chunk of the Lower 48 next week and into St. Patrick’s Day weekend.
If you want to see a TORCH here it is:
Wow! That’s all you can say about that with an exceptionally warm pattern setting up for most of the central and eastern U.S. This kind of pattern would allow us to make a run at 80 degrees away from the coast.
The long range forecast has been fairly easy over the past couple weeks thanks to good model agreement and a very strong MJO wave that’s dominating tropical forcing. Here’s a look at the last 90 days of the MJO and the Euro forecast.
A brief cool down here in the northeast this weekend as we transition from phase 4 into phase 5 of the MJO (teleconnects to troughing) followed by the screaming sou’westerly torch.
The strong MJO wave/tropical forcing signal makes this a high confidence forecast. Check out the 2M temperature anomalies for given phases as the MJO wave emerges from Indonesia and into the Pacific Ocean.
At least initially our foray into Phase 6 and Phase 7 should allow the southeast ridge/west coast trough couplet to really establish itself.
However, I will caution, by the end of the month if this wave continues to show such incredible staying power we may wind up toward phase 8/1 which corresponds to cooler than normal weather along the east coast. The Euro weekly forecasts also show the big warmth backing off by the end of the month which is something to watch out for.
Either way – enjoy the warmth that’s moving in. Nationwide we may be setting the stage for this March to be one of the warmest on record.