It’s taken long enough but this evening we have two weather events on our radar. Ironically, the pattern is still a mild one, with well above normal temperatures on the way for much of next week.
Still, well timed (or poorly timed, based on your perspective) disturbances will produce snow across Connecticut tonight and again on Saturday.
Tonight’s system is moisture starved and not terribly dynamic so I wouldn’t expect much. That said, 1″-2″ of snow is possible in some areas with a moist onshore flow keeping southern New England a bit more primed for snow than inland areas to our north and west. A touch of frontogenesis appears to be enough along with QG forcing/ascent to produce some locally heavy bands of snow this evening.
As for Saturday, most years this storm wouldn’t be much of a story, this year it is. A slightly more juicy and dynamic shortwave is ejecting from the Pacific northwest (the one that produced the snowstorm and ice storm near Seattle) will produce some strong lift and a more widespread batch of snow. A bit of mid level warmth gets introduced which may mean some sleet or freezing rain particularly for areas south of Hartford. Details to be determined but at this point I feel pretty good about 2″-4″ of snow on Saturday with the potential for 6″ somewhere though most of us will see less.
Here’s the 15z SREF snow probabilities which aren’t overly impressive though they should bump up in coming runs.
In the grand scheme of things this winter still is a bit of a downer but I do see some signs of larger storm threats beyond day 10. -NAO????? Stay tuned….