Pattern Change Here – But It Won’t Last Long

The long awaited pattern change is here. Ridging over the Aleutian Islands and Bering Strait is less developing and a substantial chunk of cold air is heading south from the North Pole. The Arctic Oscillation is also switching from a positive to neutral or negative phase. We’re making progress!

120 Hour GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly

Operational GFS AO Forecast

The impending pattern change will be quite significant and a basic reversal of the hemispheric pattern for the past month or two. While temperatures will drop below normal here in Connecticut by the second part of the weekend this pattern change will be short lived.

Models are now showing the big ridge/block over Alaska rapidly retrograding toward Kamchatka by day 12 with a warmer pattern developing across the lower 48. In addition signs point toward the current stratospheric warming having trouble downwelling toward the troposhere.

I do expect colder weather and even some wintry weather threats the week of 1/16 but a major change in the hemispheric pattern doesn’t seem to be enough to deliver us a big thump of winter. I do think the pattern looks decent for northern New England – skiers rejoice!


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