No Festivus Miracle – No Sign of Winter

What a dull stretch it’s been! The weather pattern across the northern Hemisphere has returned to where it was in the beginning of December. Low pressure over Alaska and Greenland means an exceptionally warm +EPO/+NAO signal for the northeast.

December so far has been near 6 degrees above normal in greater Hartford and though we’ll shave a bit off that over the next week there’s no question the month has been an unmitigated torch.

Here’s the GFS ensemble mean anomalies for 1/1/12 (the Euro ensemble means are fairly close).

The substantial negative height anomalies over Alaska and Greenland show this pattern isn’t going to get much better for snow lovers. Transient ridging in the +PNA regions (western NOAM) may deliver brief cold shots and keep New England a bit cooler but nothing too cold. I fully expect the next 15 days to average above normal and likely most of January.

To show you how bad the +EPO/+NAO (negative heights over Alaska and Greenland, respectively) here are the sfc T correlations.

Put them both together and that’s a pretty lethal combination for cold. At the same time there doesn’t appear to be a mechanism to dislodge the current pattern. For example the MJO has entered a dormant phase and does not look like tropical forcing will be able to dislodge the Alaskan death vortex.

Torch on!

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3 thoughts on “No Festivus Miracle – No Sign of Winter

  1. This is very good news. The cost of heating a home in New England might be a bargain this winter. My father always liked to say, “I prefer cool weather in the summer and mild weather in the winter.” It’s shaping up to be a “dad’s” favorite so far.

    • Agreed! It’s been nice not to be sinking a bunch of $$$ into heating oil this winter so far. Looking at the next 7 days I only have one day near/below average… the rest look above!

  2. I bought jewlery as part of one of those “if it snows 6 inches (at BDL) on New Years Day, you get it free” promotions. Knew it was low odds when I bought it, but what are the odds now, about zero?

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