There are several ingredients in place to make today’s severe weather threat look significant BUT at this point I think the threat is more marginal.
A remnant elevated mixed layer plume is in places across the region this morning. On the 12z ALB sounding the lapse rate was nearly dry adiabatic near 600mb. Impressive! In addition heat and humidity is building across southern New England with dew points of 65-70. Moderate shear and good jet dynamics approach by this afternoon further enhancing potential. With all those “pros” there is one giant “con” in the form of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over New York and Vermont this morning will limit the severe potential.
These sub-severe thunderstorms will approach around noon and bring with them rain-cooled air and prevent solar heating from continuing in earnest during midday. Additionally latent heat release will lessen steep mid level lapse rates and reduce the amount of instability this afternoon.
I think we will see some thunderstorms pop up late this afternoon and this evening but it’s unclear how much recovery time the atmosphere will have after the midday showers move through. Overall looks like a low-end type of severe weather threat.