There are 2 things that normally lead to flooding in Connecticut. One is a tropical storm or hurricane passing to the east and the other is a stalled upper level low to the southwest. Frequently both happen in conjunction with one another.
This week we have a stalled cut-off low (cut-off from the jet stream which keeps it relatively stationary) over the Mid Atlantic and waves of rain moving toward Connecticut. Frequently relatively narrow corridors of heavy rain setup and where they “train” is where flooding develops. So far it appears that the “training” of heavy rain will remain west of Connecticut but it’s still going to be very wet here.
The reason why is that the ULL location allows a tropical moisture connection to setup from the Caribbean to New England. The low also produces large scale lift on the eastern side which provides some of the necessary ingredients for heavy rain.
I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll see some more summer like weather by the end of next week. We’ll deserve it by then.