As I mentioned the other day for a storm in April to pan out things need to be just about perfect. It’s not January… there’s not much room for error! This storm will not take a “perfect” track with the mid level low centers tracking over or west of Connecticut. Had the 500mb/700mb lows tucked underneath Connecticut we would have been talking about 1-2 feet of snow even down to the shoreline! That’s not happening.
Though temperatures on some models (like the NAM) appear cold enough for all snow northwest of Hartford this time of year “borderline” doesn’t cut it. I’d like to see a solid -2 or -3c at 850mb during the height of the storm to forecast big totals and it looks like that will be confined to northern Litchfield County. In and around Hartford a slushy inch or two seems possible with several slushy inches in the higher elevations northwest of town.
Around New Haven and in southeastern Connecticut this storm should be just about all rain.
One thing to watch, especially for the northwest suburbs of Hartford, is that if this storm ticks east and develops a bit faster than progged it may be enough to dynamically cool the column for a burst of heavy, wet snow. Here are the numbers: