Close Call, But Mostly Rain

As I mentioned the other day for a storm in April to pan out things need to be just about perfect. It’s not January… there’s not much room for error! This storm will not take a “perfect” track with the mid level low centers tracking over or west of Connecticut. Had the 500mb/700mb lows tucked underneath Connecticut we would have been talking about 1-2 feet of snow even down to the shoreline! That’s not happening.

Though temperatures on some models (like the NAM) appear cold enough for all snow northwest of Hartford this time of year “borderline” doesn’t cut it. I’d like to see a solid -2 or -3c at 850mb during the height of the storm to forecast big totals and it looks like that will be confined to northern Litchfield County. In and around Hartford a slushy inch or two seems possible with several slushy inches in the higher elevations northwest of town.

Around New Haven and in southeastern Connecticut this storm should be just about all rain.

One thing to watch, especially for the northwest suburbs of Hartford, is that if this storm ticks east and develops a bit faster than progged it may be enough to dynamically cool the column for a burst of heavy, wet snow. Here are the numbers:

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One thought on “Close Call, But Mostly Rain

  1. 12z ECM:

    FRI 06Z 01-APR 0.7 -1.2 1005 96 98 0.10 543 539
    FRI 12Z 01-APR -0.1 -2.9 997 96 99 0.52 537 540
    FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.5 -4.9 990 89 86 0.42 530 538
    SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.3 -5.8 992 89 96 0.20 526 533
    SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.6 -5.4 992 89 85 0.04 525 532

    850’s are a solid -3 to -5 during the height of the storm at BDL.

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