After a top 5 flood from New Milford downstream through Oxford the Housatonic is poised to see another significant flood. Here’s a forecast and current hydrograph from the National Weather Service.
This hydrograph for Gaylordsville in New Milford shows just how slowly the river level is dropping. Run off continues in the basin after the 5th highest crest on record Monday at 13.75 feet.
The good news here is that the upcoming rainstorm looks less significant in Connecticut than it did yesterday. Instead of 2″-4″ of rain in Litchfield County 1″-2″ seems more likely. This alone would not produce major flooding but a spike in temperatures and dew points across the Housatonic River basin (which includes the Berkshires) will produce rapid run-off and melting of water-laden snow pack.
The Housatonic River may go into a major flood again on Friday. If we see more snow melt or more rain than I’m currently expecting we could see even higher levels than we did on Monday. People from Falls Village to Derby and Shelton should be preparing for another serious flood threat on Friday.
Across the remainder of Connecticut the flood threat is lower for the end of the week than it was on Monday.