This is the 12z NAM total precipitation forecast and you can see over 3″ of rain in a portion of western Connecticut. This amount of rain combined with ongoing snowmelt in the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires could lead to serious flooding.
The NAM (and to some extent the GFS) are the most impressive in terms of rainfall. Other models, including the Euro, keep the heaviest rain west of Connecticut. Many of the SREF members do as well. If a widespread 2″-4″ of rain falls on Connecticut many areas may be in trouble. If, however, the drier models verify flooding will not be as big of an issue.
It won’t be until tomorrow afternoon or evening that we have a better idea who is in the bullseye with this one.