It’s been a snowy start to the winter for sure. Though the western part of the state has cashed in the most in recent storms I think everyone gets hit hard by this storm and right now I’m forecasting 8″-14″ of snow.
The SREF (short range ensemble forecast) probabilities show greater than an 80% chance for 8″+ of snow. That’s extremely impressive. The 00z NAM is going bonkers with this storm (as usual) dropping 15″ or more of snow statewide. This is likely overdone (a good rule of thumb is to cut the NAM forecast by about 25%) but can sometimes signal the potential for the storm to really go to town.
One thing to watch here is how quick and how close to the coast the mid level low forms. If the mid level low really goes bonkers along the Jersey Shore like the 00z NAM does than I expect 12″-20″ of snow across the state. If, however, the mid level low takes a bit longer to organize and scoots a bit east I think the heaviest snow will wind up northeast of Connecticut (just west of Boston?). This seems like the most likely scenario at this point. The 00z GFS continues the trend from previous GFS runs with a track a solid 75 or 100 miles east of the overly-amped NAM.
Wherever the cold conveyor belt starts to rip someone in southern New England is going to get hit very hard and probably pick up 18″ or so. At this point I think 8″-14″ is a reasonable forecast for most areas though I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers are bumped up in some areas, particularly northeast of Connecticut.
One additional note. Unlike the last storm blizzard conditions are unlikely. The heaviest wind and snow will likely be out of phase so even though snow totals will likely be more impressive than the blizzard after Christmas the wind will not arrive until the heaviest snow ends.