More Snow Likely Wednesday

This is the winter that keeps on giving. A strong upper level disturbance is going to tap into a ton of Gulf and Atlantic moisture and produce an impressive moisture-laden storm near southern New England Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The storm is going to drop snow on Connecticut. I have a high level of confidence we’ll see over 4″ of snow. Whether we see a blockbuster storm with double digit accumulation numbers remains to be seen.

The 21z SREFs are about as impressive as you’ll see for a 66 hour forecast.  The ensembles show a >70% probability of 8″+ of snow by Wednesday morning.

Other models show impressive snowfall totals at this juncture. The question will be how close to the coast does the low track. If it’s too far offshore we’ll get a 4″-8″ kind of snowfall. Certainly respectable and I have a high confidence in at least that much snow.

If the storm tracks just southeast of Montauk and up over Cape Cod over a foot of snow would be probable in many areas, especially if the mid level lows (at 700mb and 850mb) can close off and strengthen fast enough. This will get sorted out in future model runs but another significant storm seems likely. My gut tells me this will be a big one and probably the biggest we’ve seen this year (on average across the state)

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