Another Miss?

In the last several years I can’t remember anything quite like this. Storm after storm with seemingly incredible  synoptic setups and phenomenal potential are getting yanked away by our models as we get closer to the event. The weather pattern is been so highly anomalous it’s been difficult for the models to resolve and we are getting some whacky solutions.

The Euro which has been absolutely steadfast, with ensemble support, as seemingly pulled the rug out from under this event with 72-84 hours to go. Very unusual. 

We’ll see what happens. Still  3-4 days out so things can change but the shift east in this time range is discouraging for snow lovers.  Eastern New England stands a much better shot of seeing something significant than Connecticut does.


5 thoughts on “Another Miss?

  1. I seem to remember CT weathercasters missing most every storm forecast just last winter. I’m not being critical, I mean I don’t believe that every meteorologist in CT has been hired based on their inability to read computer modeling correctly. Still, what’s up?

    • Hey Anton,

      No doubt there were 2 badly busted forecasts last year. New York City had well above normal snowfall last year while Connecticut had well below normal snow. Odd for sure. As for this year we have seen some odd storms that have struggled to develop. At least personally for both storms this year I thought the odds of a hit were less than 50/50 so I can’t exactly call them busts. For whatever reason our models have just had a really tough time handling a very bizarre weather pattern this year with extremely strong blocking and a very strong/fast flow.

  2. Ryan
    I thought that you played the storms well but i know where Anton is coming from it seems most weatherman see a model and jump all over and then we it changes it leaves us wondering what happened ( funny how it seems to go from snow to no snow)

    • Yeah, totally agree, Kevin. It’s been odd that we’ve seen fairly decent model consensus and then it totally goes away all in one run. Pretty unusual. A lot of mets are eating some crow on this one… I’m glad I didn’t lock anything in on this one. After getting burned on last week’s storm I was a bit more hesitant and wanted to wait for another run or two before getting specific.

  3. …and the flip-flop continues as the GFS now trended west and shows a hit… hopefully the 0z Euro follows! What are your thoughts Ryan?

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