Computer Model Fail (Probably)

Every winter I say to myself, “don’t be fooled,” yet our NAM computer models sucks me in once or twice each year. I’m not biting this year. For the last 24 hours the model has been spitting out significant snow on Wednesday due to a complex interaction of surface troughs and upper level vorticity. It’s an odd setup and the forecast is even odder.

The NAM is virtually on its own with this forecast although a couple models have hinted at the potential for an inch or two of snow on Wednesday.

This is the 18z NAM (12km resolution) total precipitation ending 1 a.m. Thursday morning. If this verified nearly 10″ of snow is possible in parts of Connecticut. Across ski country several inches of accumulation is likely as a storm backs in from the east but here in southern New England major snow seems unlikely.

I’m sticking with “chance of flurries or light snow”. We’ll see who’s right come Thursday.


One thought on “Computer Model Fail (Probably)

  1. I’m with ya. You always seem to downplay the events that us weenies get all amped up about & you’re usually dead on. (Remember that storm last February that fizzled out?) I need to be more realistic about these things too & listening to you, whether I want to hear it or not, seems to be the way to go.

    I’ll be happy with flurries. 🙂

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