Just How Close Will it Get?

This is the storm that refuses to die. For most of Connecticut the storm is basically a non-event with no snow expected at all. In southeastern parts of the state it’s possible that the storm backs in just enough to produce a quick burst of light snow.

Areas further east like the South Shore of Boston and Cape Cod now may actually get hit by a decent thump of snow. The SREF and GEFS have lead the way showing the potential for this storm to come a bit closer than forecasted in the last day or so. Keep in mind this is after or medium range models totally backed away from this storm impacting us at all. What a long and strange trip it’s been with this storm.

Here’s the 00z NAM forecast precipitation. The light blue is >0.1″ with and the dark green is >1″ of precipitation. The NAM is likely too robust with the northwest extent of snow but it has continued to push west.

I’d say the odds of an inch or two of snow in southeastern Connecticut are about 25% but the rest of the state should get by with flurries at the worst. Never say never but right now it would take something close to a miracle to get a more significant (say 4 or 6″ snow) back into the Connecticut River Valley.

This weather pattern has been raising hell with our computer models. A fast flow coupled by an extreme block in the northern Latitudes complete with a retrograding polar vortex make this a very unusual and anomalous pattern that is difficult for the models to resolve.

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5 thoughts on “Just How Close Will it Get?

  1. Yeah some snow on Wednesday is possible. The NAM actually gives like 4-8″ but I think it’s waaaaay overdone.

    Next legit chance is Christmas which would be a lot of fun. Hopefully that pans out but nothing has so far this year so we shall see.

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