50-50 Shot at a Big Storm

I’m still not convinced of a big snowstorm yet. The 12z Euro is a huge hit but many models are well east of there or have even trended further east. The 18z GFS and NAM are misses (though the newly printed 00z NAM is closer to the coast).

We’re dealing with complex interactions between shortwaves. It’s unclear if phasing will happen in time to draw the storm back toward southern New England but it will be close. This is a high stakes situation because when the storm does form it will sit, spin, and stall out meaning monster snow totals are possible. Whether that happens over the Atlantic or here in New England remains to be seen.

00z model trends will be important and by tomorrow afternoon we should have a pretty good idea what kind of storm we’re looking at.

I’m putting the odds of a sizable snowstorm (>6″) at just shy of 50%.

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5 thoughts on “50-50 Shot at a Big Storm

  1. I wouldn’t get too excited about all the back and forth dancing of the computer models. No matter what the models spit out every six hours…basic long term climate data tells us the big snowstorms are a rare event in the Tri-State East Coast region. If 10 or 15 inch snowstorms were that common (or happened as much as the models show in early runs)…then average seasonal snowfall would look much different across our area. Bridgeport would average 80 inches of snow a year (not 24 inches )…NYC would average 70 inches (not 24 inches)…and Windsor Locks along the Mass state line would average 100 inches (not 44 inches). The point is a big snow in the I-95 states is always a long shot. I think this storm will be a miss for the Tri-State…and just graze areas north of us – maybe Cape Cod and up in Maine will get some snow.

    I’m betting on an old fashioned “green East Coast Christmas” again this year!

  2. Hi.
    I was trying to fine snowfall averages (for this year) using weather Underground and only Bridgeport CT seems to measure snow out of all the stations in CT. What’s up with that?

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