I’m still not convinced of a big snowstorm yet. The 12z Euro is a huge hit but many models are well east of there or have even trended further east. The 18z GFS and NAM are misses (though the newly printed 00z NAM is closer to the coast).
We’re dealing with complex interactions between shortwaves. It’s unclear if phasing will happen in time to draw the storm back toward southern New England but it will be close. This is a high stakes situation because when the storm does form it will sit, spin, and stall out meaning monster snow totals are possible. Whether that happens over the Atlantic or here in New England remains to be seen.
00z model trends will be important and by tomorrow afternoon we should have a pretty good idea what kind of storm we’re looking at.
I’m putting the odds of a sizable snowstorm (>6″) at just shy of 50%.