So far around Hartford we are running a -2.3 temperature departure from normal. With a significant portion of the next 7-10 days below normal, some days significantly so, this departure will grow. By late next week I expect we will be at least -5 for the month! This should be the first below normal month of 2010.
As for snow even though the weather pattern is favorable for a New England snowstorm models indicate that the ingredients may not come together for this weekend’s storm. The Euro has been leading the charge the last 3 runs with a storm that scrapes New England (the run before that had virtually no storm at all). As usual the GFS has been flopping around like a dying fish.
We will see what the next 24 hours of model runs bring. If the next two Euro runs indicate a whiff to the east the threat for big snow is dramatically lower. Keep in mind the Euro in the day 4 range is lethal in these kinds of storms and really kicks butt compared to its American counterparts.