Did I Write the Sunday Storm Off Too Quickly?

Yesterday I blogged about all of our models yanking the Sunday/Monday storm far inland and virtually guaranteeing a rain storm. With no help from the -NAO and no semblance of a high pressure to the north getting things to change enough for snow was going to be hard to do.

Some of our models, however, are beginning to shift to a more interesting scenario, particularly for the Berkshires and Green Mountains. It’s possible that Connecticut could cash in too if things break just right.  It’s still going to be tough.

Here’s the 12z ECMWF forecast from Tuesday. This is about as awful of a snow setup as you can get. Rain, rain, rain!

Today’s 12z GFS along with the 12z UKMet and the 12z GFS ensembles are much further east. Almost shockingly so. Though this is still a rain event for almost all of New England (some snow at the front and back end in Vermont) it’s pretty close to being a decent snowstorm. The reason is that the Pacific energy responsible for the storm remains separate from a strong jet stream disturbance in southern Canada. Instead of joining forces and phasing over Kentucky and Indiana (forcing the storm way west) the systems remain apart until near the Mid Atlantic coast. At face value this solution would produce a blizzard from central Pennsylvania north through most of upstate New York.

It still appears that rain is most likely from this storm in Connecticut. That said, this storm may still have a few surprises left for us. Stay tuned!

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