Upslope Snow Stays North

It appears that the best upslope snow will stay north of central Vermont as drier air has filtered in to areas south of I-89. Though Stowe and Jay Peak will likely pick up 3″-6″ of snow from this event (and even more by Monday) areas like Okemo and Killington will see little.

Here’s the 12z 4km-WRF run by the National Weather Service in Burlington, VT. This high resolution model helps pinpoint the potential for small-scale snow events like upslope snow or lake effect snow. A model with very high resolution like this one (4km) allows the model to resolve small changes in topography that would be broad brushed in a larger model. You can see 24 hour precipitation totals over 0.5″ across the Chittenden/Lamoille county line along the spine of the Greens (>4000 ft) which indicates significant snowfall. Farther south the precipitation forecast tapers off significantly to the south of Sugarbush as drier air will preclude a more widespread snow event.

This may change a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a second storm rotates in but at this point it looks like northern Vermont will cash in again. Killington and Okemo skiers shouldn’t worry, however, as plenty of cold means plenty of snowmaking and natural snow chances increase quite a bit by late this week!

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