What originally looked like a very impressive shot of cold air after Thanksgiving and through the first week of December is no longer looking so impressive. A major negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) pattern is in place and appears to be locked in for the next 10 days. On the left is a 8-10 day mean 500mb height anomaly forecast from the 12z GFS. You can see colder than normal heights over the northern Plains and Great Lakes with a massive ridge (higher heights) over Greenland which is the -NAO.
This time a strong west coast trough (-PNA) is helping drive the storm track to our west over the Great Lakes. This occasionally happens in a -NAO regime. What this means for New England is a very changeable pattern switching between below and above normal several times in the next 2 weeks or so. With the -NAO block, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if the storm track eventually tracked closer to our south of New England which would increase our snow chances especially as the pattern on the west coast and north Pacific changes.
During the December 1-10 period I expect our snow chances to be somewhat greater (still not a lock by any means) than what we typically see early in December. Temperatures will likely average near or just below normal.
Be patient skiers… things will improve!